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Global Trends in Diabetes
National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and
diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health
examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years
and 2·7 million participants
Goodarz Danaei MD a *, Mariel M Finucane PhD b *, Yuan Lu MSc c,
Gitanjali M Singh PhD c, Melanie J Cowan MPH d, Christopher J Paciorek PhD
b f, John K Lin AB c, Farshad Farzadfar MD c, Prof Young-Ho Khang MD g,
Gretchen A Stevens DSc e, Mayuree Rao BA c, Mohammed K Ali MBChB h,
Leanne M Riley MSc d, Carolyn A Robinson MSc i, Prof Majid Ezzati PhD j k ,
on behalf of the Global Burden of Metabolic Risk Factors of Chronic Diseases
Collaborating Group (Blood Glucose)†
The Lancet, Early Online Publication, 25 June 2011
“…….Data for trends in glycaemia and diabetes prevalence are needed to
understand the effects of diet and lifestyle within populations, assess the
performance of interventions, and plan health services. No consistent and
comparable global analysis of trends has been done. We estimated trends
and their uncertainties in mean fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and diabetes
prevalence for adults aged 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories.
Methods
We obtained data from health examination surveys and epidemiological
studies (370 country-years and 2·7 million participants). We converted
systematically between different glycaemic metrics. For each sex, we used
a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean FPG and its uncertainty by
age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally,
subnationally, or community representative.
Findings
In 2008, global age-standardised mean FPG was 5·50 mmol/L (95%
uncertainty interval 5·37—5·63) for men and 5·42 mmol/L (5·29—5·54) for
women, having risen by 0·07 mmol/L and 0·09 mmol/L per decade,
respectively. Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence was 9·8%
(8·6—11·2) in men and 9·2% (8·0—10·5) in women in 2008, up from 8·3%
(6·5—10·4) and 7·5% (5·8—9·6) in 1980.
The number of people with diabetes increased from 153 (127—182)
million in 1980, to 347 (314—382) million in 2008. We recorded almost
no change in mean FPG in east and southeast Asia and central and
eastern Europe. Oceania had the largest rise, and the highest mean FPG
(6·09 mmol/L, 5·73—6·49 for men; 6·08 mmol/L, 5·72—6·46 for women)
and diabetes prevalence (15·5%, 11·6—20·1 for men; and 15·9%, 12·1—
20·5 for women) in 2008. Mean FPG and diabetes prevalence in 2008 were
also high in south Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and central Asia,
north Africa, and the Middle East. Mean FPG in 2008 was lowest in sub-
Saharan Africa, east and southeast Asia, and high-income Asia-Pacific. In
high-income subregions, western Europe had the smallest rise, 0·07
mmol/L per decade for men and 0·03 mmol/L per decade for women;
North America had the largest rise, 0·18 mmol/L per decade for men and
0·14 mmol/L per decade for women.
Interpretation
Glycaemia and diabetes are rising globally, driven both by population
growth and ageing and by increasing age-specific prevalences.
Effective preventive interventions are needed, and health systems should
prepare to detect and manage diabetes and its sequelae….”
TEXTO COMPLETO DISPONIBLE EN TIMBO COLECCION SCIENCEDIRECT
O SOLICITELO A busquedas@smu.org.uy
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